It’s probably not going to be ok.
On Friday like millions of parents in Britain I got the results of where my kid will be spending the next seven years of his educational life. We got our fourth choice. It’s not a good fit for my son. I’m disappointed but I can truthfully tell him that:
it will probably be ok.
I want the best for my children. I want to protect them. I want happiness for them and I want them to be safe.
But by the time my kids are old enough to have kids of their own the probability is that
things will not be ok. They will be far from ok.
You may have heard of the IPCC report — it’s a collaborative report worked on by hundreds of climate scientists and commissioned by the UN. These scientists make predictions about how the climate is changing and recommendations about what to do about it. Historically they have always underestimated the speed and severity of climate change. Their most recent report details the differences between what the world will be like if we increase global temperature by 2 degrees and what it will be like if we increase the temperature by 1.5 degrees.
With an increase 1.5 degrees, human beings (as a species) have a good chance of survival. We will still lose (for example) 70–90% of our coral reefs due to ocean acidification, but with a 2 degree rise we will lose all of it. Food supplies will still be seriously threatened. We will still experience more extreme weather events like droughts, fires and flooding. The sea level will still rise (and continue to rise for centuries due to feedback loops) and some low lying island nations will probably still disappear. Significant numbers of coastal dwellings will still be lost.
However, a 2-degree rise paints a truly old testament picture. There will be serious loss of human life. Our food supply will be threatened; natural disasters will be common place. Large areas will become too hot to live in. Millions of people will be displaced. We are on track for this to happen when I am an old lady and when my children are in their thirties and forties. There’s a good chance in this scenario that their children (if they have them) will starve to death. Certainly that will be the fate of many children across the world.
It sounds bad doesn’t it? It sounds unbelievable.
Read the report yourself, if you don’t believe me. I’ve posted the link at the bottom of this article. Its written in the kind of language that scientific reports are written in, it’s in the passive voice and gives levels of confidence for each scenario. If you are used to reading scientific reports it should scare the shit out of you.
So, what are we doing about this?
Well, what we’re doing (as a species) is carrying on with business pretty much as usual. Projections show that the likelihood is that we’ll have reached the two-degree scenario in 2048.
Things are probably not going to be ok.
The traditional ending to this kind of writing is to try to rally you into some kind of action.
For my son’s school situation, I am considering making an appeal. I’m talking to the SENCO at his school and to the school he’s been allocated. I’ve spoken with his current head teacher. I’ve considered and rejected the idea of moving house. I’ve put him on the waiting list for the school I want him to go to. I’ve also tried (and failed) to get him into a very nice progressive private school which over the course of his secondary school life would have cost the same as a terraced house in my home town. And really, the school he’s got in to will probably be fine. He’ll spend his life in detention because of the organizational difficulties he has with his dyspraxia, but he’ll be well looked after and safe and well fed and he’ll get a decent (if weirdly religious) education.
If the planet warms by 2 degrees things will not be fine. And it’s hard not to get overwhelmed by that. All any of us want to do is to protect our kids, and to get the best for them.
I am doing something. I’m doing what I can, and what is within my capabilities. I’m far from perfect on this but I am trying.
I am speaking with my MP and emailing her. I’ve found an excellent charity who can help you do this if you don’t know what to say or you feel unsure of your facts (www.hftf.org.uk)
I am signing petitions even though it feels pointless.
And I am marching with #mothersriseup on International Mother’s Day (May 12th) I hope you will join in with this if you are in London. Our politicians need to see that this is not a fringe issue: We need to be out in numbers to protect our children. Please come!
Here is the IPCC report: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
